The world of global security is in a state of profound transition. For decades, the Euro-Atlantic security architecture has been underpinned by a simple, yet powerful, principle: collective defense anchored by the United States. This model, a legacy of the post-World War II era, is now facing unprecedented stress. As the US recalibrates its strategic priorities toward the Indo-Pacific, European nations are being forced to confront a new reality, one where their own military readiness and strategic autonomy are no longer theoretical questions but a necessity for survival.
This shift is not a sudden break but a culmination of long-term trends. The rise of China as a great power has fundamentally altered the global geopolitical landscape. The US has openly declared that its primary security focus is now on the Indo-Pacific, seeking to counter Chinese influence and protect vital trade routes. This pivot, while strategically sound from a US perspective, has created a sense of uncertainty and urgency in Europe. The question looms: if US attention is increasingly drawn to Asia, can Europe continue to rely on Washington as its ultimate security guarantor?
A Stark Wake-Up Call for Europe
For many European leaders, the answer is a resounding no. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 served as a stark, brutal wake-up call, dispelling the post-Cold War illusion that large-scale territorial conflicts were a thing of the past. The conflict exposed Europe’s vulnerabilities, from its dependency on Russian energy to the long-standing underinvestment in its own military capabilities. While the US has provided critical support to Ukraine, the conflict has also highlighted the deep and wide resources of the US military, underscoring how dependent other NATO members remain. This dependency is increasingly seen as a liability, not just for a war in Europe, but also for Europe’s ability to act on the global stage.
In response, European nations are embarking on a historic push to increase defense spending and enhance military readiness. The numbers are telling. According to the European Defence Agency (EDA), EU defense spending reached an unprecedented €343 billion in 2024, a 19% increase compared to 2023. This figure is projected to rise to €381 billion in 2025. For the first time, defense investment exceeded €100 billion, signaling a serious commitment to closing capability gaps. The NATO target of spending at least 2% of GDP on defense is no longer a distant goal but a tangible benchmark that many countries are now meeting or exceeding. In 2024, 23 of the 32 NATO members were expected to meet this benchmark, a significant rise in just two years.
The Push for Strategic Autonomy
Individual nations are leading this charge. Germany, once known for its reluctance to spend on defense, has made a historic shift, creating a €100 billion special fund and loosening debt limits to finance defense investments. Poland, on the eastern flank, has become a defense spending powerhouse, allocating over 4% of its GDP to its military with plans to increase it further. Poland is also aiming to significantly increase the size of its land forces, from 115,000 to 300,000 men, which would make it the largest land army in Europe. France is also on a trajectory to significantly boost its defense budget. These are not isolated policy decisions but part of a broader, continent-wide effort to build combat-ready forces and bolster Europe’s collective defense.
But the challenge is not just about the money. It is also about military capacity and strategic coherence. Europe needs to acquire major military equipment, from tanks and artillery to drones and aircraft, and it needs to do so in a way that promotes interoperability and economies of scale. The European Commission is actively involved, with initiatives like the Readiness 2030 plan, which aims to mobilize up to €800 billion to strengthen Europe’s defense infrastructure. This is a crucial step toward strategic autonomy, the ability for Europe to act independently in matters of security without relying solely on US support.
Interconnected Theaters: The Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic Link
This newfound European focus on defense has a direct, and complex, impact on the Indo-Pacific. While European powers are naturally refocusing on the defense of their own continent, they are not disengaging from the Indo-Pacific. On the contrary, the increased strategic connectivity between the two theaters is now firmly established on the European agenda. European nations recognize that Chinese actions, from its growing naval power to its “gray-zone” warfare activities, have direct consequences for Euro-Atlantic security. For example, China’s increasing strategic presence in the Arctic and its involvement in hybrid warfare, such as the alleged cutting of undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, affect European security interests directly.
As a result, European powers like Germany, France, and Italy are increasing their military engagement in the Indo-Pacific. This includes closer technological and defense ties with partners like India and Japan, and a focus on reducing military dependencies on the US. This “quiet pivot” by European nations, driven by self-interest and a need for greater strategic autonomy, could lead to more, not less, active European engagement in the Indo-Pacific. This is a crucial point for a blog, as it dispels the notion of a simple trade-off between Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security.
In a multipolar world where the traditional unipolar order is in flux, the future of security alliances is being redefined. The US is signaling a new approach to alliances, one that is more transactional and less bound by traditional commitments. This is forcing a fundamental reckoning for US allies. Europe is responding with urgency, investing heavily in its own defense and pursuing a path to greater strategic autonomy. This journey, while challenging, is creating a new dynamic in global security. It is not about Europe replacing the US, but about Europe becoming a more capable and confident partner, one that is prepared to defend itself and, in doing so, strengthens the collective security of a world in transition.
References
DGAP. “In the Same Boat: Security Challenges in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific.” DGAP, 9 September 2025.
European Parliament’s EPRS. “EU Member States’ Defence Budgets.” European Parliamentary Research Service, 7 May 2025.
Eunews. “EU defence spending hits 343 billion in 2024, targets 381 in 2025.” Eunews, 2 September 2025.
Institut Jacques Delors. “European defence Part 1: budgets.” Institut Jacques Delors, April 2025.
EUobserver. “The turbo-charging of EU defence — explained.” EUobserver, 18 March 2025.
Wikipedia. “Readiness 2030.” Wikipedia, 4 March 2025.
The Strategist. “Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific united in response to hybrid threats.” The Strategist, 21 July 2025.